Codifying Climate Announcements from COP26 into NDCs

Annabel Rice

1.5°C is the target. The goal that will give all of us the best chance of survival.

2.7°C is the challenge we faced entering COP26. 

There have been claims that commitments made here at COP26 would put us on track for 1.8°C of warming (1). However, this represents another false promise in a series of underwhelming announcements. The promises made at COP have not been enshrined in legal commitments. This means they are vulnerable and it becomes difficult to hold countries accountable. One pathway would be to include new commitments announced at COP in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are a vital component of the Paris Agreement which came into effect in 2020 as they act as ‘road maps’ stating how each country plans to achieve their fair share commitments. Official commitments made as part of the NDCs showed that the world is actually a long way from avoiding climate catastrophe and remains on track for 2.4°C. 

Outside of the climate realm these numbers seem small and insignificant. How can just one degree be the cause of so much discussion? Yet, the difference between our first two numbers, just 1.2°C, has been made startlingly clear. The difference would mean that entire countries could be submerged underwater, millions of people will be pushed to the brink of starvation and over a billion could become climate refugees (2, 3).

As I sit here at COP26, in a world warmed 1.2°C, I am confounded by the fact that we have just 0.3°C of our budget left. If you are reading this and wondering how you can help, the answer is clear; call on your government to update their NDCs to reflect these new promises. 

Don’t leave climate change as a problem for someone else, for your climate conscious friend, for your nature loving friend because the only real promise of this COP is that climate change will have universal impacts and it is up to all of us to change our future.

References

1. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/cop26-climate-pledges-could-help-limit-global-warming-to-1-8-c-but-implementing-them-will-be-the-key

2. https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-refugee-2050-2647788456.html

3. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/19/maldives-calls-for-urgent-action-to-end-climate-change-sea-level-rise.html