Chilean 2020 NDC: A Brief Analysis
by Alvaro Alexis Alfaro Morales, COP Lead
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are national plans highlighting climate actions, contributing to global progress on climate change. The NDCs are determined by the Parties, not imposed by a system, but the NDC actualizations need to be done every 5 years and their results reported to the UNFCCC.
As a way to understand NDCs, we can think of climate action as a big puzzle, where the NDCs are the pieces that each party must put in to create the big picture. The picture in that puzzle is the world we want to live in and the one we want to leave to future generations. Everyone will know that the only way for a puzzle to show its best picture is if we can put all the pieces together. That is why it is vitally important that each party delivers an ambitious NDC and executes it, and that the more developed countries help the less developed countries to deliver and execute theirs, since a puzzle with missing pieces is useless.
However, multilateralism has been affected during 2020 due to COVID 19, with an attempt to carry out some activities by electronic means, but mainly by postponing the main activities such as SB52 and SB53, and COP26 (the annual UN climate negotiations), currently to occur in November. It takes special importance to fulfill the commitments already made, and national efforts to combat climate change must not be put on hold. In the fight against climate change there is no time to lose as indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 2019 report (IPCC, 2019). This is why the presentation and implementation of the NDC in 2021 is more important than ever.
Also, it is necessary to keep in mind that the implementation of actions to combat climate change must always be designed so that the poorest and most marginalized are not forgotten, and avoid damage that poorly planned actions, where the local community and local authorities are not used as a source of information and cohesion, can cause to their struggle for social mobility (Hogar de Cristo, 2019).
Previous COPs had agreed to update the NDCs as their commitment for 2020 and the general call during COP25, the 2019 climate negotiations, was to increase the ambition of the NDCs, so that each country's contribution can accelerate the path to carbon neutrality towards 2050. At a time when the combined international efforts are proving complex due to COVID 19 , it is the national, regional and local efforts that take on the greatest importance, and it is here that the NDCs play a fundamental role.
Brief Analysis of Chilean NDC
First, it should be noted that the process of presenting a NDC is complex, and has several stages.The commitment that countries have made is to present them every 5 years, evaluating them biannually, and that each new version increases the ambition of the previous one, where it is discovered that it is possible (Gobierno de Chile, 2020). This update has been made for this period by only 82 countries and the European Union, being the Chilean NDCs well received by the international community, since Chile is still president of the COP25 and must have an exemplary behavior towards the other countries (Herrera, 2020). Still over half of the parties are indebted to the update of their NDCs to date.
Secondly, it is necessary to highlight that the NDCs have a pre-report that must be presented to civil society, so that they can send recommendations. In the case of Chile, this was done in October 2019, leaving the rest of the year for consultations, and people participated to a great extent in this consultation, through national level consultations, Indigenous consultations, and sectoral consultations as health, energy, cities, etc.
Thirdly, it is possible to observe that the pre-report presented by Chile in October was severely criticized both nationally and internationally. The NDC project was criticized for having unconditional and conditional objectives in the goals set, which can still be seen on the Climate Action Tracker project website, that this project, under the standards of reduction to reach the objective 1.5°C and 2°C, was considered only with its unconditional objectives, as an NDC "Insufficient" which was an advance compared to the previous NDC that was considered "Highly Insufficient" (Climate Action Tracker, 2019).
Finally, NDC 2020 was presented by combining the unconditional and conditional targets together, and all were given the category of unconditional (Gobierno de Chile, 2020, pág. 95), which resulted in the new NDC in Chile being considered "compatible" with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement (Climate Action Tracker, 2019). The balance sheet for Chile's NDC 2020 is therefore quite positive, and it's already on track with the close of 2 carbon power plants during 2020.
The Positive Points of the New NDCs: General Aspects
The enhanced NDC has only unconditional objectives, which increases its ambition compared to previous NDCs, and to the NDC project presented in October 2019. It includes gender equity and equality as pillars of these NDCs.
It is explained that the conservation of the oceans and water security will be a national priority, since at least 25% of drought can be attributed to climate change (Government of Chile, 2020, pp. 18, 23).
Black Carbon was added to the NDC. Considering that it deeply affects people's health, and is a determining factor in climate change, the closure of the carbon power plants is a must in Chilean climate action.
In terms of energy transition, the commitment is to change the national energy matrix to non-conventional renewable energies, especially solar and wind energy, since 78% of the total greenhouse gases in Chile are produced by the production of electrical energy (coal) and for land transport (diesel), (Government of Chile, 2020, p. 17). This transition is possible, since Chile is approaching development and has important comparative advantages when talking about the implementation of solar panels for the production of photovoltaic energy, given the high radiation in the country (Government of Chile, 2020, p. 23).
It is made explicit that a just transition must be developed that does not affect the fight for the elimination of poverty (Government of Chile, 2020, p. 24). This is in line with the idea presented by Hogar de Cristo in its environment and poverty report, which reminds us that no one should be left behind in terms of changing jobs to combat climate change, especially in the energy transition and its direct workers and indirect impacts (Hogar de Cristo, 2019). The transition to carbon neutrality will be sought to have the lowest possible social, environmental and economic costs.
In line with the requests made by YOUNGO (official youth observer to the UNFCCC) and the Youth Caucus (official youth observer to the UNCCD) in their respective conferences in 2019, they will seek to respect the scientific knowledge and traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples (YOUNGO, 2019) & (UNCCD Youth Caucus, 2019).
The Positive Points of the New NDC in Mitigation
Chile’s NDC establishes carbon neutrality for 2050, explaining that:
M1) Chile commits to a GHG emissions budget that will not exceed 1,100 MtCO2eq, between 2020 and 2030, with a maximum of GHG emissions (peak) in 2025, and to reach a level of GHG emissions of 95 MtCO2eq in 2030. (Government of Chile, 2020, page 33)
It seeks to avoid double counting, already mentioned as a factor why other countries have not allowed Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to be adopted. And cut 25% of total black carbon emissions by 2030 (Government of Chile, 2020).
The Positive Points of the New NDC in Adaptation
The connection between the NDC and the ODS is explicitly stated.
According to what this NDC has established in its social pillar, the country recognizes the need to link Chile's economic, social and environmental development with climate actions, and from this point of view, the commitments presented below contribute directly to the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Objectives (ODS). (Government of Chile, 2020, page 39)
This is of utmost importance, since for communities to be able to adapt to climate change, their needs must be understood as a whole.
The Positive Points of the New NDC, Integration Between Mitigation and Adaptation
Firstly, Chile has explained in its NDC that it is committed to the circular economy and the efficient use of resources, for which it must redesign processes and products, in the search for their sustainability.
Secondly, the NDCs include a commitment to massive reforestation and management of native forests and forestry crops:
Chile is committed to the sustainable management25 and recovery26 of 200,000 hectares of native forests, representing GHG captures of around 0.9 to 1.2 MtCO2eq per year, by 2030. (Government of Chile, 2020, p. 54) by avoiding their being cut down.
Third, the NDCs include for the first time landscape restoration and protection of oceans and wetlands, with the goal of protecting 42% of the exclusive maritime zone.
Finally, it is highlighted that conservation and reforestation actions have the potential to create a high percentage of green jobs, as stated in the 2019 WTO report on the future of trade in services (World Trade Organization, 2019).
NDC Implementation: Midterm Component
On the one hand, Chile is committed to increasing territorial capacities, citizen and gender consultations. On the other hand, Chile has made its carbon reduction goals explicit as follows:
Mitigation targets have an implementation period from 2020 to 2030. The economy-wide goal also considers a maximum year of emissions, to 2025, which translates into a change from a growing trend of GHG emissions to a decreasing emissions trajectory from that peak. With respect to the committed GHG budget, this implies that Chile's accumulated GHG emissions between 2020-2030 (11 years) will not exceed 1,100 MtCO2eq. (Government of Chile, 2020, p. 83)
The Negative Points of the New NDC
The energy transition is one of the most necessary actions to reduce Chile's carbon footprint, however, as can be seen in different publications at the national level, the closure of coal plants is scheduled to be gradual from 2020 to 2040, this given the country's comparative advantages in terms of clean energy could be done at a faster pace, especially taking into account that coal plants also produce damage to people's health (Parra, Climate Tracker , 2020).
Secondly, it should also be considered negative, that although civil society was heard in different activities throughout 2019 - some of which had to be suspended due to the protests resulting from the social explosion of October 2019 - consultations should be more extensive, and a standard consultation process should be created that can be applied by civil society in different spaces.
Finally, it should be considered that native forest reforestation actions should have a territorial component that implies the participation of civil society, reducing forestry monocultures, which still have a large presence within territories in conflict with native peoples (Parra, Climate Tracker, 2020).
Green Recovery
Taking Into consideration of all the above, and the fact that the government has been declaring a green recovery for some time now after the COVID 19 crisis (IMF, 2020), statements that have appeared in the press and in the government's RRSS, as well as being an integral part of the speech of the Minister, Mrs. Carolina Schmidt, at the fourth meeting of ministers for climate action (Schmidt, 2020). The country must bet on a green recovery, post-pandemic COVID 19.
This green recovery should be added as an important item and sent as a correction or annex to the current review of Chile's NDCs, as COVID is named in the foreword to this NDC update, but is not further elaborated upon after saying that it should not hinder climate action.
Green recovery, however, should be included considering that the quarantine situation in which many countries have entered, has shown that reducing human impact on ecosystems is possible, crystalline waters were seen again in Venice, animals have been observed in areas where they had not been seen for many years, and unnecessary trips in different means of transport have been reduced, Being teleworking a great example that much of what we do does not require mandatory travel to do the work in an office, which can reduce pollution, in addition to increasing the quality of life of thousands of people who use up to 5 hours a day to travel from their home to work and back.
Finally, it is necessary that as the climate change law is still in negotiations at the congress the project needs a modification which gives the green economic recovery a priority over other projects, taking into account the already mentioned potential of the implementation of the NDCs as job creators (World Trade Organization, 2019).
The Role of Civil Society
The role of civil society is to monitor the state's performance in implementing the Paris Agreement, through the NDCs. Civil society should have an important consultative role in the design of public policies that seek to combat climate change, especially in developing actions at the local level such as closing coal-fired plants, creating green jobs and others. The regional environmental discussion initiatives that are being carried out online during 2021 have been positive, and should become permanent and have face-to-face components when the health situation permits.
Finally, the role of civil society that is manifested in campaigns such as the Billion Tree Campaign (PLANT FOR THE PLANET, 2019) that at the local level is manifested in various campaigns and in the special participation of young people in climate action, should be valued by the state, when allocating resources efficiently, giving NGOs and other institutions, the resources needed to be part of the restoration of the country, around accelerating mitigation and adaptation, since achieving carbon neutrality is a human goal, not a political objective.
Conclusion
Chile’s updated NDC shows leadership and compliance with the commitments made by the country in Article 4 of the Paris Agreement.
It is possible to observe that the updated NDCs have been well received by the national and international community. The inclusion of black carbon and the protection of the oceans, the social pillar and the acceleration of the closure of coal plants are the positive points - although in the latter a greater effort is still possible.
Iit must also be taken into account that COVID 19 has presented a challenge to multilateral diplomacy, especially to the adoption of new agreements and the participation of civil society in decision-making, and that, therefore, ways must be designed and regulated so as not to stop the multilateral work of the UNFCCC in complex times such as the present, given the urgency of action in the fight against climate change and its effects. So the 2021 NDC synthesis report of the UNFCCC secretariat that will be published by 28 February, is very important to see where the world is on this, later than this complicated 2020.
Additionally, the recovery from the economic crisis caused by COVID 19 should be taken as an opportunity to give greater importance to investments of a sustainable nature, such as electricity generation plants from non-conventional renewable sources and circular economy initiatives.
Finally, the struggles countries are facing due to the closure of borders, and the need for joint actions by the state and civil society to combat climate change and to design effective public policies, requires that the state and civil society work hand in hand to design and execute actions in favor of the country's carbon-neutral goals and to protect people's lives and health.
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